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Is the US Economy in Recession?

Hi all! Today I would like to share with you a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Based Recession Indicator.

If the value of this index rises above 67% that is historically reliable indicator that the economy has entered a recession.(Source: Hamilton, James, GDP Based Recession Indicator Index)

1. Recession Indicator Check

Considering the Recession Indicator, the answer is No. You can find the Recession Indicator Chart below:

Recession Indicator by DefendDark, all rights reserved.

Let's check the top of the curves with red colour to better understand the indicator level during the economic crisis.

You can see the last 4 major crisis in the world considering the indicator tops below:

  1. 1990 Oil Crisis: End of Cold War and oil price shock World Wide

  2. 2001 The Dot Com Financial Crisis: Major decline in economic activity which occurred mainly in developed countries

  3. 2008 Global Financial Crisis: The crisis expanded world wide by affecting major financial markets as well as banking systems.

  4. 2020 Financial Crisis: Covid 19 Pandemic related economical issues.

2. Where are we considering the Recession Indicator?

Although many analysts consider that we are already in an economical crisis, I would like to express my opinion by saying, we are a bit early.

If you have a look at the chart again you will be able to see the Green dots, which indicates the start moments of crisis.

There is 1 or 1.5 years in between the dots, when we made a rough approach from a Green dot to the consecutive Red.

The indicator value is currently at 2% which is far from 67%, a crisis level, and that is the reason, US economy expected to stall in 2024 Q4 and feel the Recession in late 2025.

3. Effects on the Crypto Markets

Although I had an expectation that the Crypto's inevitable rise is depending on the impact of the incoming economical crisis, I think we will have a blow off top on Crypto Assets first, followed by a deep correction and economical crisis in 2025 considering the Recession indicator timeline.

And probably we will all be discussing how the wealth transfer completed on 2026 with then Deep Impact Crisis followed by the Crypto Money Revolution.

None of the targets represented on and are not financial advice. Please seek professional advice if you are trading or investing in any asset.

Thank you for reading.


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